Economist forecasts steady growth for area housing market

Attendees filled the Hilton Richmond Hotel & Spa - Short Pump for this year's local forecast seminar by the Home Building Association of Richmond. Photos by Jonathan Spiers.

Attendees filled the Hilton Richmond Hotel & Spa in Short Pump for this year’s local forecast seminar, hosted by the Home Building Association of Richmond. Photos by Jonathan Spiers.

The rate of growth seen last year in the local homebuilding market should continue on pace through 2016.

That was the message delivered by the keynote speaker at this year’s local forecast seminar put on by the Home Building Association of Richmond.

David Crowe, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, was the seminar's keynote speaker.

David Crowe, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, was the seminar’s keynote speaker.

Area homebuilders and remodeling professionals filled the ballroom of the Hilton Richmond Hotel & Spa in Short Pump on Thursday. The event featured keynote speaker David Crowe, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders.

Crowe said Richmond’s housing market is faring better than Virginia overall, as well as the country – “at least for the foreseeable future,” he said. Existing house prices have not grown back as much as other areas in the state, which Crowe said could correlate with income growth per household.

For 2016, Crowe forecast that national GDP growth would continue at 2.4 percent, the same rate seen last year. He expects the rate could increase to 2.7 percent in 2017.

Mortgage rates are expected to go up 4.4 percent, a rate that Crowe described as higher than in the past but low by historic standards. Single-family construction remains about 50 percent of what Crowe considers a normal market, though it has doubled since the low point that was seen in 2009.

IMG_0190

Rob Carter of Southern Traditions and Katherine Story of Ferguson Enterprises discussed the latest home design trends.

Multifamily construction is not expected to grow significantly, but residential remodeling is expected to do well as more homeowners sell their homes and new buyers pay to remodel.

The event also featured comments from Rob Carter of custom builder Southern Traditions and Katherine Story of bath and kitchen supplier Ferguson Enterprises, who discussed the latest home design trends.

The seminar coincided with a 2015 new home market report released by HBAR and Commonwealth Partnerships. The report, based on statistics from Integra Realty Resources – Richmond, showed the number of closings in 2015 increased 9 percent compared to 2014, construction permits jumped 15 percent, and new home prices edged up 2 percent, with an average area price of $374,445.

Attendees filled the Hilton Richmond Hotel & Spa - Short Pump for this year's local forecast seminar by the Home Building Association of Richmond. Photos by Jonathan Spiers.

Attendees filled the Hilton Richmond Hotel & Spa in Short Pump for this year’s local forecast seminar, hosted by the Home Building Association of Richmond. Photos by Jonathan Spiers.

The rate of growth seen last year in the local homebuilding market should continue on pace through 2016.

That was the message delivered by the keynote speaker at this year’s local forecast seminar put on by the Home Building Association of Richmond.

David Crowe, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, was the seminar's keynote speaker.

David Crowe, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, was the seminar’s keynote speaker.

Area homebuilders and remodeling professionals filled the ballroom of the Hilton Richmond Hotel & Spa in Short Pump on Thursday. The event featured keynote speaker David Crowe, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders.

Crowe said Richmond’s housing market is faring better than Virginia overall, as well as the country – “at least for the foreseeable future,” he said. Existing house prices have not grown back as much as other areas in the state, which Crowe said could correlate with income growth per household.

For 2016, Crowe forecast that national GDP growth would continue at 2.4 percent, the same rate seen last year. He expects the rate could increase to 2.7 percent in 2017.

Mortgage rates are expected to go up 4.4 percent, a rate that Crowe described as higher than in the past but low by historic standards. Single-family construction remains about 50 percent of what Crowe considers a normal market, though it has doubled since the low point that was seen in 2009.

IMG_0190

Rob Carter of Southern Traditions and Katherine Story of Ferguson Enterprises discussed the latest home design trends.

Multifamily construction is not expected to grow significantly, but residential remodeling is expected to do well as more homeowners sell their homes and new buyers pay to remodel.

The event also featured comments from Rob Carter of custom builder Southern Traditions and Katherine Story of bath and kitchen supplier Ferguson Enterprises, who discussed the latest home design trends.

The seminar coincided with a 2015 new home market report released by HBAR and Commonwealth Partnerships. The report, based on statistics from Integra Realty Resources – Richmond, showed the number of closings in 2015 increased 9 percent compared to 2014, construction permits jumped 15 percent, and new home prices edged up 2 percent, with an average area price of $374,445.

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