The BizSense Crystal Ball: Things to watch in 2025

As we begin a new year and prepare for a changing of the guard in both the White House and Richmond City Hall, it’s worth pondering the themes and trends that may shape the local business community in 2025.

Here are a few topics on the minds of the BizSense news crew:

Riverfront amphitheater amps up

The 7,500-capacity venue is planned to host about 30 shows a year. (BizSense file images)

Downtown Richmond’s music scene is set to be turned up to 11 when the newly named Allianz Amphitheater at Riverfront opens this spring.

The $30 million facility beside Tredegar continues to take shape and is said to be on track for its scheduled June opening. The 7,500-capacity venue is a joint venture between Live Nation and Coran Capshaw’s Charlottesville-based Red Light Ventures.

Initial bookings announced so far include Dwight Yoakam in June, Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit in July, Alison Krauss & Union Station in August, and “Weird Al” Yankovic in September.

The venue is planned to host about 30 shows per season, so look for more announcements in the coming weeks and months as construction wraps up and the region’s newest entertainment venue takes center stage.

City Center

A rendering of the 30-story hotel that City Center Gateway Partners has proposed for the Coliseum redevelopment.

After a year of nearly no news on the City Center front, expect more from the city in 2025 on its planned redevelopment of the 9-acre site that includes the long-dormant Richmond Coliseum.

As the city’s process to pick its preferred development team moves into a third year, just one of the four finalists – Maryland-based Capstone Development – is said to remain in active negotiations with the city, making an official selection announcement likely in coming months.

But as Richmond’s outgoing mayor and one of last year’s mayoral candidates have mentioned, there are some who would still like to see an arena remain in the city, whether by refurbishing the Coliseum or building a new venue, in light of little news of late on a planned arena in Henrico.

The coming year should reveal which direction the city takes and what the future holds for what’s long been a downtown dead zone.

GreenCity

A conceptual rendering shows the arena in relation to other buildings in the proposed GreenCity mixed-use development.

As for that Henrico arena, look for more news this year on the 200-acre GreenCity development that the 17,000-seat venue is planned to anchor.

Beyond county prep for needed infrastructure improvements, little has been learned about the $2.3 billion project since, in fall 2023, the residential portion of the mixed-use development was sold to Markel | Eagle, whose homebuilding arm is set to start building nearly 900 homes on the site’s northern half beside the I-95-295 interchange.

Watch for that portion of the project to progress this year, when there should also be more to share about the mixed-use part that’s to include the arena, albeit after its latest 2026 target. Full buildout of the entire GreenCity project remains anticipated in 2033.

Diamond District

Construction underway on CarMax Park, which will replace the adjacent, nearly 40-year-old Diamond. (Skyshots Photography)

While ground was finally broken and construction is underway on the long-promised ballpark for the Richmond Flying Squirrels, more work will be needed in 2025 for the larger $2.4 billion Diamond District development that’s supposed to support the new CarMax Park.

By late December, Richmond’s Economic Development Authority had yet to sell land that’s planned to make up the project’s 30-acre first phase to Diamond District Partners, the development team now led solo by local firm Thalhimer Realty Partners. A separate sale of Sports Backers Stadium also needs to be made between the EDA and Virginia Commonwealth University, which plans to put the $25 million in proceeds toward its under-development Athletic Village across the street.

Development on the Diamond District’s initial phase, to include a 180-room hotel and apartments, is anticipated to start this fall. But it remains to be seen if that timeline will be affected by the $40 million legal dispute between Thalhimer and its former teammates on the project. Between the legal drama, development commitments and the can’t-miss 2026 deadline for the ballpark, 2025 is sure to see plenty of Diamond District headlines.

City Hall

With a new mayor, three new City Council members and a vacancy in the chief administrator’s post, look for lots of transitional churn at Richmond City Hall in 2025.

Danny Avula has promised a “streamlined transition process” in his first months as mayor. But after a year of challenges that remain ongoing, such as meals tax collections and permitting and plan reviews, the first few months of 2025 are likely to be anything but smooth.

Avula’s administration will be taking the reins while conducting a national search for a new CAO to replace Lincoln Saunders, who stepped down at the close of Levar Stoney’s term. Senior Deputy CAO Sabrina Joy-Hogg is set to serve as interim CAO in the meantime.

Housing prices and inventory

Over the last several years, local home prices and a shortage in homes available for sale have kept the region’s residential real estate market in a strange state of flux. It’s interesting to wonder whether both buyers and sellers might finally come to terms with “higher-for-longer” interest rates and help the market get the kinks out.

Apartment rental rates and vacancies

Also on the housing front, apartment rental rates seem to have stabilized in certain parts of the region in 2024 after years of non-stop increases. Will there be a continued leveling-off in 2025 and what does that mean for local landlords who may have taken out loans a few years ago when the sky seemed to be the limit?

Commercial real estate loans

Speaking of loans, there was much discussion nationally in 2024 about commercial real estate loan maturities, particularly on office and apartment buildings. The fear is that some developers and property owners will have loans coming due in 2025 and beyond for which the math at today’s interest rates won’t add up based on their business plans from when the loan was originated. Will that cause some developers and property owners to sell sooner than they would have liked or at a discount? Or put more skin in the game to refinance?

Back-to-office

In certain parts of town, such as the Central Business District, it felt like more and more local employers had their workers back at the office at least a few days a week in 2024. With President-elect Trump calling for more federal workers to return to the office full-time, it will be interesting to see how that branches out across the state given the size of the federal government workforce across the commonwealth. And will the private sector take notice and follow suit? And if it’s true that loads of folks from Washington, D.C. and Northern Virginia moved to Richmond during the peak of the work-from-home trend and drove up our housing prices because they thought they could work from anywhere forever, what happens when they get called back to the office?

The Dominion pit

The lot is bound by East Cary, East Canal, South Seventh and South Eighth streets.

Fresh off selling its vacant Eighth & Main office tower downtown to a developer, Dominion Energy still has its city block-sized lot at 701 E. Cary St. to deal with. It’s where the utility giant once planned a high-rise office tower and is among the most noticeable vacant lots in the city. The company hasn’t said recently what might happen there, but its future could change the look of the Central Business District.

Vices

The region saw a handful of local breweries close in 2024. It was the first visible sign of weakness in an industry that had grown like crazy for more than a decade. Will we see more beermakers shutter this year or were the weakest of the bunch weeded out in 2024?

Speaking of weed, will this be the year that the General Assembly finally legalizes a full recreational marijuana market in Virginia? We’ll find out in the next 90 days or so.

Sports

What will become of the region’s annual PGA tournament, which will lose its title sponsor and local home course after this year? Will a deep-pocketed sponsor step up in time to keep the event from going elsewhere?

Rumblings of bringing professional hockey back to the region have been heard for the last few years. Could this be the year that something solidifies? And could landing a minor league ice hockey franchise be the key to getting GreenCity’s arena going?

Malls

There’s plenty to watch this year at local malls. Regency continues to evolve, with more apartments in the works and rumors about a new tenant headed into the old JCPenney building. Chesterfield Towne Center is up for sale and could be under new ownership before year’s end. Could a new owner bring changes to the region’s last indoor mall? And out at Short Pump Town Center, might we finally see something happen with the long-vacant Nordstrom building?

Intermediate Terminal Building

The Intermediate Terminal building is built on stilts just west of Rocketts Landing.

For years on this crystal ball list we’ve pondered what will become of the city’s Intermediate Terminal Building in the East End. The difference this time around is that Richmond is fielding responses to an RFP for the property, which means we may finally see something happen with the property this year.

What are we missing?

Any other topics we haven’t touched on that you’re curious about? Feel free to get the conversation started in the comment section below.