A rendering of the 30-story hotel that City Center Gateway Partners is proposing for the Coliseum redevelopment. (City documents)
This time last year, when Richmond BizSense last dusted off the old crystal ball, the big-picture topics on our minds were: “Will there be a recession? Will inflation improve? How high will interest rates go?”
On a localized level, the items du jour in January 2023 were the massive economic development projects of Diamond District, City Center and GreenCity.
It’s strange to say, but we still don’t have total clarity on any of those going into 2024.
Nevertheless, it’s still a healthy exercise to dive in once again on what to watch for this year for those big local projects and other factors that could shape the Richmond economy and business community in 2024. (We’ll let the pundits and economists predict those national dynamics.)
Diamond District
The 60-plus acres are bordered by Arthur Ashe Boulevard, Hermitage Road, the interstate and the railroad tracks.
It was a quiet year in 2023 for Diamond District news for what’s been called the biggest economic development project in Richmond’s history.
Since final terms for the $2.4 billion project were reached between the city and developer RVA Diamond Partners in April, there’s been little movement publicly on the time-sensitive project that the parties have acknowledged will not deliver a new stadium for the Richmond Flying Squirrels by Major League Baseball’s 2025 deadline.
With the stadium now targeted for 2026, time remains of the essence for a project that’s anticipated to take about 18 months to complete. Yet, beyond an expansion of the mixed-use development’s tax-increment financing district in May, other steps needed for the project have yet to be taken, such as establishing a financing authority for the development, and transferring the city’s portion of the 67-acre site to the Richmond EDA.
Despite appearances, we’re told much is happening behind the scenes, and there should be more news to report in the New Year as designs are finalized and more agreements are made. Stay tuned.
City Center
Even quieter in recent months has been Richmond’s City Center project, which remains in a sort of solicitation limbo.
The selection of a developer for the redevelopment project to replace the Richmond Coliseum and nearby properties had been scheduled to be made this summer, after the city received interest from five respondents and narrowed the finalist field down to four.
But despite proposal revisions that were submitted over the summer, two of which called for convention center hotels 30 or 40 stories in height, little has been said about the selection process since.
Contributing to the silence has been the loss of project manager Maritza Pechin, who left City Hall in September for a federal gig. We’ll see if 2024 picks up the pace.
GreenCity
A conceptual rendering shows the arena in relation to other buildings in the proposed GreenCity mixed-use development.
There was more news in 2023 for GreenCity, the massive 200-acre arena-anchored development planned at the former Best Products headquarters in Henrico.
Its financing authority was formed in January, and in February the county announced that ASM Global had signed on to develop and manage the 17,000-seat arena that’s planned to anchor the $2.3 billion development.
In March, Henrico sold the Best Products site to the developer and bought Saint Gertrude High School’s next-door Outdoor Athletic Center. And over the summer, Markel | Eagle signed on to develop the $400 million residential portion of GreenCity, setting the stage for nearly 900 homes.
The land for those homes was acquired in September, and a second financing authority for that part of the project was being put into place toward the end of the year.
Expect more news on GreenCity this year, as the arena remains targeted for completion by the end of 2026. Full build-out of the entire project is anticipated in 2033.
Commercial lending
One of the main reasons for the apparent snail’s pace of those big development projects is the tightening of the commercial real estate lending market in 2023, driven by rising interest rates. Those increases have made the math on those huge projects tough to pencil out. It also slowed progress on other real estate projects in the region, including the apartment market, which for years could do no wrong. A more concrete stance on a leveling out of rates could jump start all the above this year.
Local government changes
With multiple changing seats on the boards of supervisors in Henrico, Hanover and Chesterfield, the dynamics of those local government bodies are sure to change in 2024. We heard concerns from folks in the real estate world as 2023 came to a close about how some of those new leaders might view continued growth in the region when they take office in 2024. It will be interesting to watch.
And don’t forget there’s a mayoral race coming up this year in the city of Richmond.
Beer, pot and gambling
Castleburg Brewery owner Karl Homburg closed his business last month after a decade.
With more brewery closures in 2023 than any previous year since the industry took off about a decade ago, will the craft beer bubble continue to deflate in 2024?
Will the General Assembly revisit the possibility of creating a recreational marijuana market and fully legalize the sale of the drug?
Is anyone tired of hearing about casinos? If so, don’t expect it to go away in 2024. Petersburg is vying to pick up where Richmond left off in its bid to bring a sizable casino resort to the region.
Office work
We’re fast approaching the four-year anniversary of the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and here we are still coping with one of the longest-lasting effects: the fact that some workplaces still haven’t brought their employees back to the office full-time.
One could argue that means it’s indisputably a permanent setup for some companies. But on the other hand, it’s possible that some organizations simply haven’t fully figured out how to the thread the needle on a touchy subject tied to employee morale. The answer also has implications for the office real estate market.
Population growth
The Richmond region’s population has continued to grow in recent years, including since the pandemic and work-from-home trends brought folks here from places like Northern Virginia/Washington, D.C. and elsewhere.
It will be interesting to see if that trajectory slows at all this year. Apartment developers will certainly be watching.
Other properties/projects to watch
Demolition work underway on the Spring Rock Green shopping center in April 2023. (Photo courtesy of Chesterfield County)
The big three projects mentioned above are likely to drag on a bit longer this year, but there are plenty of other notable real estate developments and prime parcels worth keeping an eye on this year. Each of them has the chance to reshape their respective pockets of the region.
Springline at District 60: The redevelopment of the former Spring Rock Green shopping center in Chesterfield County is taking shape as we speak. One piece that’s still up in the air is the previously announced ice hockey facilities planned for the project. We’ll look to have some answers on that this year.
Genworth campus: The reinvention of the now-dormant Genworth Financial corporate campus in Henrico County took a step forward in 2023 when it went under contract to an out-of-town developer. That deal hadn’t close as of the end of the year, so stay tuned for progress on that front in 2024.
Dominion’s downtown land: Dominion Energy took an on-again-off-again approach as to the future of its city-block-sized parcel in downtown Richmond. It’s latest move on the property was to take it off the market in the latter half of 2023. Should the commercial lending market loosen this year, it’s possible interest from suitors could push the energy giant to reconsider.
Willow Lawn/Westwood area: A massive transformation is in store for the area around Willow Lawn and Westwood near the Henrico/Richmond line. Three major projects in that area should continue to progress this year. Those are the Kinsale Capital-led plan for the Anthem campus at the corner of Broad and Staples Mill; the Ukrop family’s mixed-use concept eyed around its namesake food company headquarters nearby; and the continued planning by Willow Lawn owner Federal Realty to urbanize the longtime shopping center.
Willow Lawn Shopping Center covers around 38 acres near the Richmond-Henrico line. (Images courtesy County documents)
Amphitheater and CoStar: Two major projects will continue to change the face of city’s riverfront this year. CoStar Group is underway on its massive new office complex, while next door the Richmond Amphitheater will begin to take shape this year ahead of a spring 2025 opening.
Two big ones in Manchester: We haven’t heard much lately about the massive two-tower apartment project planned by New York firm Avery Hall next to Legend Brewing. Interest rates have surely been a factor for such a project. There should be movement there one way or another this year. And the future of the TForce Freight campus remains up in the air, although BizSense reporters heard rumblings of an interested party just before 2023 came to a close. We expect some news for that property in 2024.
Southside Speedway: Some have said the future of the shuttered racetrack is so important to some in Chesterfield that it cost an incumbent supervisor their seat on the board in the recent election. When the county announced an RFP for bids to bring racing back to the site, some observers questioned whether administrators weren’t just going through the motions. Do the powers-that-be in the county really want racing there again? Can the RFP frontrunner’s plan to restart the track really gain traction this year?
BizSense Economic Forecast
If you’re looking for more insight as the new year begins, don’t miss BizSense’s annual Economic Forecast event on Jan. 9. Click here for more information.
A rendering of the 30-story hotel that City Center Gateway Partners is proposing for the Coliseum redevelopment. (City documents)
This time last year, when Richmond BizSense last dusted off the old crystal ball, the big-picture topics on our minds were: “Will there be a recession? Will inflation improve? How high will interest rates go?”
On a localized level, the items du jour in January 2023 were the massive economic development projects of Diamond District, City Center and GreenCity.
It’s strange to say, but we still don’t have total clarity on any of those going into 2024.
Nevertheless, it’s still a healthy exercise to dive in once again on what to watch for this year for those big local projects and other factors that could shape the Richmond economy and business community in 2024. (We’ll let the pundits and economists predict those national dynamics.)
Diamond District
The 60-plus acres are bordered by Arthur Ashe Boulevard, Hermitage Road, the interstate and the railroad tracks.
It was a quiet year in 2023 for Diamond District news for what’s been called the biggest economic development project in Richmond’s history.
Since final terms for the $2.4 billion project were reached between the city and developer RVA Diamond Partners in April, there’s been little movement publicly on the time-sensitive project that the parties have acknowledged will not deliver a new stadium for the Richmond Flying Squirrels by Major League Baseball’s 2025 deadline.
With the stadium now targeted for 2026, time remains of the essence for a project that’s anticipated to take about 18 months to complete. Yet, beyond an expansion of the mixed-use development’s tax-increment financing district in May, other steps needed for the project have yet to be taken, such as establishing a financing authority for the development, and transferring the city’s portion of the 67-acre site to the Richmond EDA.
Despite appearances, we’re told much is happening behind the scenes, and there should be more news to report in the New Year as designs are finalized and more agreements are made. Stay tuned.
City Center
Even quieter in recent months has been Richmond’s City Center project, which remains in a sort of solicitation limbo.
The selection of a developer for the redevelopment project to replace the Richmond Coliseum and nearby properties had been scheduled to be made this summer, after the city received interest from five respondents and narrowed the finalist field down to four.
But despite proposal revisions that were submitted over the summer, two of which called for convention center hotels 30 or 40 stories in height, little has been said about the selection process since.
Contributing to the silence has been the loss of project manager Maritza Pechin, who left City Hall in September for a federal gig. We’ll see if 2024 picks up the pace.
GreenCity
A conceptual rendering shows the arena in relation to other buildings in the proposed GreenCity mixed-use development.
There was more news in 2023 for GreenCity, the massive 200-acre arena-anchored development planned at the former Best Products headquarters in Henrico.
Its financing authority was formed in January, and in February the county announced that ASM Global had signed on to develop and manage the 17,000-seat arena that’s planned to anchor the $2.3 billion development.
In March, Henrico sold the Best Products site to the developer and bought Saint Gertrude High School’s next-door Outdoor Athletic Center. And over the summer, Markel | Eagle signed on to develop the $400 million residential portion of GreenCity, setting the stage for nearly 900 homes.
The land for those homes was acquired in September, and a second financing authority for that part of the project was being put into place toward the end of the year.
Expect more news on GreenCity this year, as the arena remains targeted for completion by the end of 2026. Full build-out of the entire project is anticipated in 2033.
Commercial lending
One of the main reasons for the apparent snail’s pace of those big development projects is the tightening of the commercial real estate lending market in 2023, driven by rising interest rates. Those increases have made the math on those huge projects tough to pencil out. It also slowed progress on other real estate projects in the region, including the apartment market, which for years could do no wrong. A more concrete stance on a leveling out of rates could jump start all the above this year.
Local government changes
With multiple changing seats on the boards of supervisors in Henrico, Hanover and Chesterfield, the dynamics of those local government bodies are sure to change in 2024. We heard concerns from folks in the real estate world as 2023 came to a close about how some of those new leaders might view continued growth in the region when they take office in 2024. It will be interesting to watch.
And don’t forget there’s a mayoral race coming up this year in the city of Richmond.
Beer, pot and gambling
Castleburg Brewery owner Karl Homburg closed his business last month after a decade.
With more brewery closures in 2023 than any previous year since the industry took off about a decade ago, will the craft beer bubble continue to deflate in 2024?
Will the General Assembly revisit the possibility of creating a recreational marijuana market and fully legalize the sale of the drug?
Is anyone tired of hearing about casinos? If so, don’t expect it to go away in 2024. Petersburg is vying to pick up where Richmond left off in its bid to bring a sizable casino resort to the region.
Office work
We’re fast approaching the four-year anniversary of the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and here we are still coping with one of the longest-lasting effects: the fact that some workplaces still haven’t brought their employees back to the office full-time.
One could argue that means it’s indisputably a permanent setup for some companies. But on the other hand, it’s possible that some organizations simply haven’t fully figured out how to the thread the needle on a touchy subject tied to employee morale. The answer also has implications for the office real estate market.
Population growth
The Richmond region’s population has continued to grow in recent years, including since the pandemic and work-from-home trends brought folks here from places like Northern Virginia/Washington, D.C. and elsewhere.
It will be interesting to see if that trajectory slows at all this year. Apartment developers will certainly be watching.
Other properties/projects to watch
Demolition work underway on the Spring Rock Green shopping center in April 2023. (Photo courtesy of Chesterfield County)
The big three projects mentioned above are likely to drag on a bit longer this year, but there are plenty of other notable real estate developments and prime parcels worth keeping an eye on this year. Each of them has the chance to reshape their respective pockets of the region.
Springline at District 60: The redevelopment of the former Spring Rock Green shopping center in Chesterfield County is taking shape as we speak. One piece that’s still up in the air is the previously announced ice hockey facilities planned for the project. We’ll look to have some answers on that this year.
Genworth campus: The reinvention of the now-dormant Genworth Financial corporate campus in Henrico County took a step forward in 2023 when it went under contract to an out-of-town developer. That deal hadn’t close as of the end of the year, so stay tuned for progress on that front in 2024.
Dominion’s downtown land: Dominion Energy took an on-again-off-again approach as to the future of its city-block-sized parcel in downtown Richmond. It’s latest move on the property was to take it off the market in the latter half of 2023. Should the commercial lending market loosen this year, it’s possible interest from suitors could push the energy giant to reconsider.
Willow Lawn/Westwood area: A massive transformation is in store for the area around Willow Lawn and Westwood near the Henrico/Richmond line. Three major projects in that area should continue to progress this year. Those are the Kinsale Capital-led plan for the Anthem campus at the corner of Broad and Staples Mill; the Ukrop family’s mixed-use concept eyed around its namesake food company headquarters nearby; and the continued planning by Willow Lawn owner Federal Realty to urbanize the longtime shopping center.
Willow Lawn Shopping Center covers around 38 acres near the Richmond-Henrico line. (Images courtesy County documents)
Amphitheater and CoStar: Two major projects will continue to change the face of city’s riverfront this year. CoStar Group is underway on its massive new office complex, while next door the Richmond Amphitheater will begin to take shape this year ahead of a spring 2025 opening.
Two big ones in Manchester: We haven’t heard much lately about the massive two-tower apartment project planned by New York firm Avery Hall next to Legend Brewing. Interest rates have surely been a factor for such a project. There should be movement there one way or another this year. And the future of the TForce Freight campus remains up in the air, although BizSense reporters heard rumblings of an interested party just before 2023 came to a close. We expect some news for that property in 2024.
Southside Speedway: Some have said the future of the shuttered racetrack is so important to some in Chesterfield that it cost an incumbent supervisor their seat on the board in the recent election. When the county announced an RFP for bids to bring racing back to the site, some observers questioned whether administrators weren’t just going through the motions. Do the powers-that-be in the county really want racing there again? Can the RFP frontrunner’s plan to restart the track really gain traction this year?
BizSense Economic Forecast
If you’re looking for more insight as the new year begins, don’t miss BizSense’s annual Economic Forecast event on Jan. 9. Click here for more information.
In Manchester, don’t forget about Hourigan’s project at the Southern States Silo. Hopefully, we see movement on that project this year as well, which is projected to be the tallest building in Manchester (20 stories). Plans also include quite a bit of office space as part of that project. Hopefully, they are able to find the perfect suitor for that space so that construction can start!
RIC airport is a significant component of the business community in Richmond and all of Central Virginia. Since not mentioned in the above things to look for in 2024, I’ll add a few things that we should expect to see at Richmond International Airport in 2024: 1) Expect to see, at least, one airline offering true international flights this year. RIC’s new Federal Inspection Services Facility is expected to be complete and ready to go between now and the end of March. 2) The airport has seen significant passenger count growth since the end of the pandemic. In 2023, the… Read more »
Thank you for this important information!!!
Thanks for the info.
This airport has grown by leaps and bounds from the old Byrd Airport days. It’s been an experience of a lifetime to witness the overall growth of the metro Richmond area to over a million people that we used to only dream about way back when.
RIC had a 185,000 passenger lead over ORF entering the month of December – and looking at 2022 volume, RIC outpaced ORF by roughly 30,000 passengers in December of ’22. With all of that said, I think it’s safe to say that when the final 2023 figures come out at the end of the month, RIC will easily top ORF as Virginia’s third-overall-busiest airport. I’ll take it one step further. When you exclude the D.C. airports (that just happen to have been built in Virginia) from consideration, RIC will beat out ORF as the “Commonwealth’s busiest airport” outside of the… Read more »
What’s also not mentioned in your article is the continued apartment construction in Scotts Addition. In all probability another apartment project could be announced this year as a result of the sale of the Greyhound Bus Terminal.
I thought I already saw the apartment development announcement replacing the Greyhound bus Terminal I could be wrong? I Think the whole block that housed Tang & Biscuit and Biscuit & Gravy will be the next Scott’s Addition development announcement.
You are correct. A recent article noted 650 units in two phases on the greyhound site.
Great article as always. Maybe next year to have a better prediction on future projects you use the Magic 8 ball versus the old crystal ball. At least on the City’s projects as the “8 ball” answers would have more clarity then what comes out of City Hall.
There’s no mention of the Sauer Center project next to VCU either. There’s been more forward movement on that, than some of the other developments referenced.
Great point! This development has the potential for being a HUGE boost to the downtown-ish area!
They have to work less with city hall. That helps a lot.
…which will probably be completed before anything even happens in the diamond district.
The mayor is marketing incompetence state-wide now. Hopefully Richmond will vote for someone who has management experience next time and not just another political hack.
Look at NYC — Their new mayor is clearly better than deBlassio. Why? Because Adam’s had long experience running things while the former mayor had only experience in rabble-rousing and promoting failed ideas.